Archive for August, 2009

A day in profit

August 29, 2009

I traded 29 races today. Overall it went well but I still have to work on reducing my losses. I’m not doing anything specific to reduce my losses I think a combination of knowing the markets a little better, scrathing or taking a 1-2 tick loss will help.

I still see myself sitting there waiting for the price to come back when it goes the wrong way, and most of the times it doesn’t. So I’ll have to be better at taking a 1-2 tick loss instead of hedging just before the race starts for a 5 tick loss.

I’m only trading the favs. Some people think the favs are more difficult to trade on but I don’t find much of a difference, so I’ll just stick to trading them.

One thing that really helps you understand why you have to cut your losses is the P&L on betfair. All my losses add up to dkk 22.4, so if I just broke even on the races I had a loss I would be up dkk 26.98.

I think I’ll be ready for trading with bigger stakes when I’m done snatching the signup bonuses from all the decent bookies.

pl 29 aug

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Matched betting

August 29, 2009

Since I’m still in the first phase of trading I’ve decided to do some matched betting. I’m going to do one bookie at the time and eventually get through all the reliable ones, and then I’ll take advantage of the bonus offers existing account holders get from time to time.

I’ve decided to do this because more money = good, right? profit is profit. I have a savings account with a decent amount of money on so I will be able to take full advatage of the sign up offers. The money I get from matched betting will be sent back to my savings account so I have more funding for my mission.

When I get emails about bonus offers I will take advantage of them of course, and if I find new reliable bookies I will complete the sign up offer too.

Hope this little side adventure will give me some more profit while I’m still getting in to trading.

Still going strong

August 27, 2009

I traded quite a few races today and I ended in an overall loss. I’m happy despite the fact that I lost money today.

I’m happy because I profitted on more races than I lost money on, and I know why I ended in a loss today – I still need to work on reducing my losses. As you can see on the screenshot below I had 4 massive losses, if they were 0 or just reduced I would have ended in profit.

As long as I know what I’m doing wrong I’m making progress, if I had no idea why I ended in a loss today I might aswell close the blog and stop trading.

My prediction of the market still proves to be right most of the times, I’m using the graphs from betfair more and you can in fact get an idea of where the market will go if you look at where it has been.

I thought it would take weeks to get to know the movements in the market but I actually think it’s quite easy. I’m happy with the profits I get on the races, I set a personal record on the % profit of my stake today: dkk 4.19 profit on a race which is 14% of my stake.

With more time spent on trading I think I will get consistent profits, I don’t have a clue as to when it’s going to happen, I just know it is going to happen. I’ll keep using dkk 30 stakes until I get a consistent profit over a week.

pl 27 aug

One step closer

August 25, 2009

Originally I wanted to be able to swing trade first and then at a later time look in to scalping the market. But after looking over some of the data I’ve collected I’ve decided to scalp first and swing trade later.

Since my last post I’ve collected 3GB of data from the markets, I’m not done studying it all but I’m getting there. This time I’ve collected it from the markets through BetTrader.

I have already started scalping with dkk 30 stakes. So far I’m very confident that I will succeed in a rather small timeframe even though I had an overall losing day the first day.

I know what I did wrong and I missed out on a lot of moves because I didn’t get matched.

I also traded a few races today and I ended in an overall profit. My best profit on a race so far is dkk 2.76 (before comission) which is 9.3% of my stake. If I can be consistent at those percentages I should be well on my way.

The thing I have to work on now is reducing my losses and getting matched before the price moves so I don’t sit and watch the market move without me in the direction I knew it would.

I only traded 4 races today because of a dentists appointment.

PL 25 aug.

My new approach

August 19, 2009

Before I started my last study of the races I wanted to find trends in the market which then would allow me to swing trade, and then at a later point I would look in to scalping the market. My intension is still to do that, but since I’m back at studying the markets I decided to look in to trading in-play too.

Since I’m studying the markets again I might aswell look at it all, as there could be good oppotunities for trading in all aspects of the market. Since I got burned by relying on a website’s data to be correct I’ve decided to take that inaccuracy out of the equation. I’m now going to collect the data myself. I’m a programmer on hobby level and I may take the time to make a little data scraper program. But first I’m going to just watch the markets and take notes if I see something intresting.

I’ve experienced countless of times in my projects where the thing I was looking for was in front of me the whole time but I first saw it after a while. I think that may also be the case here. I know there is something in the markets that can give me an edge, and I am going to find it.

Back to square one

August 18, 2009

Today started out pretty good with dkk 10 profit on the first race with a stake of dkk 30.. But, after the day ended in an overall loss I started to look for the cause of this.

I found out that the site I’ve been using for studying the markets at night has very inaccurate graphs, so what worked on those graphs didn’t work in reality. It’s very unfortunate I didn’t see this before but there’s no point in whining. I’m going to study more markets now and when I think I’m on to something I’ll use dkk 1 stakes to verify it.

I’ll keep studying the markets till I’ve found my edge, and when that happens I’ll increase my stakes to dkk 30 again and build my bank up from there.

The reason I’m using dkk 1 for now is that it’s a little closer to real trading than paper trading and it’s easier for me to keep track on what works and what don’t.

I’m not letting this little set back stop my personal mission, it’s just a little bump on the road. I’m just going back to the drawing board.

Tomorrow is Day 0

August 18, 2009

I just saw that I have a gap between my classes tomorrow (tuesday) where I will be able to trade. So tomorrow will be the day! Looking forward to it.

Jamming with my friends

August 17, 2009

I stayed after school to jam with my friends so I didn’t study all the markets today like I usually do. I got home in time for studying the last 10 races and the result wasn’t that bad.

The results today showed a profit of 10% of my bank even though I only catched the last 10, the reason for that is because I divide my bank across the races I trade on so today’s stake on each race was bigger than on the other days where I studied 30-35 races.

I’m very psyched about my results so far, not a losing day yet according to my paper trades. I really hope this is the start of something profitable as  it can help me alot throughout my university education when I get to that point.

Another thing I have to think about right now is, how I can find the time for trading when I’m still going to college. I will trade a little bit in school, but there’s some classes I can’t be glued to my screen so there will be some days where I cannot trade. But the days I can, I will!

I will start trading saturday with a bank of dkk 2000.

If anyone was wondering, I play the drums and the piano. But in our little cover band I only play the drums.

Trading with real money

August 16, 2009

I originally wanted to study the markets and paper trade until the end of August. But I have decided to start trading for real this week.

I will spend a day or two studying the weekday markets to be absolutely sure about my strategy, and then I’ll start trading with small stakes. I will start with a small bank and then build it up as the profit starts coming in (hopefully).

I think it’s important that you start small because you will get a lot of practise while you build up your bank. The profit with rise slowly as your bank starts getting bigger. And if you blow your whole bank you won’t have lost much.

I’m really looking forward to see if all my efforts will pay off. My Excel-document has exceeded 1,000 lines spread across 4 sheets and I’ve spent over 8hours/day the last week studying the markets, writing down info, and later studying the Excel-document.

I will start with a bank of dkk 2,000. The currency on my Betfair account is dkk, so from now on I will also use dkk instead of £.

To make it easy for you just convert like this: dkk 10 = £1

Weekend markets

August 16, 2009

I’ve just finished studying today’s markets and I don’t see much difference from yesterday. But they seem a little quiet today compared to yesterdays markets. It’s not surprising though, it is sunday after all.

Todays paper trading shows a profit yet again, not as big as yesterday but still bigger compared to a weekday. Today I got a 15% profit of my imaginary bank. Again, I suspect this figure to be lower when I actually start trading.

I did some calculations today because I wanted to know what the crucial ratio of winning trades to losing trades to still be in profit is. Based on my average profit on winning trades and average loss on losing trades that ratio is 1.5:1.

That meaning I can lose 15 trades and win 10 and still be in profit. A low profit though, but it is still good for your confidence to know stuff like this.