Better than yesterday

January 10, 2010

I decided to trade today even though there were only one meeting. I wanted to see how the market was and I need all the experience I can get. It went pretty well, I calculate an efficiency score for each day where I compare my profit with the stakes I used and yesterday my score was 0.05 today it was 0.1. I made the score because every day is different and I need a way to track my progress no matter how many races I have traded on a given day and how big my profit were.

The markets today was different from yesterday where there were 2 meetings, but I managed to profit on every race which in it self is an improvement. The next time I trade I will use dkk79 stakes.

my p&l for today

Closer than ever

January 9, 2010

Today was a great day for me. I have been worrying about being ready to go fulltime for a while. Even though I have 4-6 months to get into trading I have been thinking “what if I really can’t do this?”. After today I really think I can, it’s my first time in over 6 months I traded all the meetings and I ended up with a nice profit. As it is now I’m confident that I can just jump right into the markets with big stakes and come out on the other side with a profit – but I won’t.

I’ve decided to increase my stakes with my profit. Today I used stakes of dkk30 and got a profit of dkk22.57 that means I’ll use dkk52.57 stakes the next time I trade. I only traded before the off today, didn’t do any long term swing trading, I’m still not done crunching the data yet. I’ll still look at it as an oppotunity to increase my profit though.

My plan now is to trade as much as I can to improve it and hopefully put some money aside before I finish college. I’m confident that I can improve enough to save atleast dkk20.000 before I finish college.

My P&L for today

also, here’s a pic from the most profitable race I did

78 pages..

January 5, 2010

78 pages.. that’s how much data I’ve collected from two meetings. I printed it because it’s easier and faster to study it this way, I accidentally printed it in colors at school (ops).

So far I’ve been able to look at a horse and conclude it would definately drift or steam with some succes. The thing I’m worried about is the strike rate, I have to get a good strike rate for this to be worth it. I hope I can find the signals and the patterns that will allow me to get a strike rate of at least 80% (preferably higher).

I’ve not been able to trade since the holiday break and the bad weather at the tracks doesn’t help either, no races no trading.

The swings I’ve seen so far are often a swing of 1-2 odds like odds 4 to odds 6, but I’ve also seen a few big swings of 8 odds.

Longterm swing trading

January 4, 2010

I’ve picked up longterm swing trading again because I got a new idea on how to approach it. I’m not done looking at the data I’ve collected because there is a lot, but I’ve already seen some patterns. When I’m done going through the data I’ll get some more data to confirm my ideas and if all goes well I’ll use minimum stakes to trade with.

I don’t expect to gain alot of profits from this, simply because my new idea doesn’t allow big stakes, but it will be nice additional profits. So far I see some nice swings, currently I’m trying to figure out how to get on them.

I’ll post an update when I’m closer to a conclusion.

Not that complicated

January 1, 2010

Today I found out it’s easier to trade if you don’t think too much. I just tried to guess the general direction of the price and then acted to what happend. My profit limit per race seems to be around dkk 0.60-0.80 with a stake of dkk 30. It’s an okay result considering it’s my first time trading since Septemper. I hope to make dkk 100 per race after a few months of practice, it’s not a goal because I don’t want to limit my possible profit but it’s a guideline as to what I expect of my trading.

The P&L is from the last two days of trading. I tested The Toy and it is great.  In the beginning it looks a little confusing. It took some time to setup and get familiar with, but after I customized it to fit my needs it just runs perfectly. It runs very fast and stable, and it’s a pleasure going to the next race.

I’m back!

December 30, 2009

I’m back after a big unannounced break. I was overwhelmed with schoolwork so I decided to put the trading on hold for a while since BetTrader went down.

But now I’m back, BetTrader Evolution is up and running and there’s also a new software available – The Toy – and it’s completely free. I haven’t traded yet but I have been planning what I’m expecting from my trading and what I want to do with my life. I’ve also looked at some practical stuff like tax and the premium charge on betfair.

The reason I’m back now is because I want to get my trading up and running before I finish school so I can move out when I graduate. If I want to live at home I have to get a “real” job in my dad’s opinion. I haven’t bothered telling him about trading or tried to convince him otherwise because he told me that if I had a dream, he and my stepmom would be glad to help. Appearently he was lying, or he thought my dream was for him to own my soul. I’ve told the rest of my family about my plan and they all thought it was exciting and encouraged me. I don’t know if they think it’s a good idea but they showed me the support you would expect from a family.

I’ve looked at the tax regulations in Denmark, the profit from Betfair is taxfree but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a little stupid rule telling you to pay tax on the profit if it is your only income. I haven’t found anything like that yet, but I’m going to do more research on the matter.

I’ve also looked a betfair’s premium charge rules, and after crunching the numbers I’ve figured out how to completely avoid it without arbing some of your profit to a bookmaker. It’s really easy.

Great day in profit

September 7, 2009

Today I traded a few races, and today I was really careful about not to enter the market when I wasn’t sure about the movement.

I only had one losing race, it could have been a winning race it was a question about hedging one tick lower, if I had BTE it would have been a small profit.

I’m starting to see that all important consistency. It’s nice to see all your hard work is paying off, and it’s not just time wasted looking over week old markets. I’m so thorough with my analysis I can only study 2-3 markets/day so I’m glad it’s not time wasted.

I’ve decided to try and trade a little each day, like 5-10 races. Don’t mind the total P/L for today it’s just a matched bet.

pl 7 sep

Feeling like I’m getting somewhere

September 5, 2009

I’ve started to see patterns in the markets, and I feel like I have better understanding of the markets. I’m doing a rather intense research of the data I’ve collected, and it is really paying off. I usually trade a little after I’ve studied a while, so I get to use the knowledge I’ve aquired from the data.

Since I have a somewhat better understanding of the markets now I see myself switching from only scalping to swing trading. If you have a good idea of what’s going to happen you might as well swing trade as it will give the best profit.

I broke my personal record today, on one race I got a profit of 20.3% of my stake. I’m happy with a profit of 10-20% of my stake per race so now I have to focus on being consistent with those kind of figures.

Funny enough, when I traded today focusing on swing trades I’ve had fewer and smaller losses on the losing races, so I’m certain this new turn of events is the right way to go.

Been a little flaky the last few days

September 3, 2009

It’s been a while since my last post. I’ve been busy with matched betting, I’ve completed the signup bunos on two bookmakers right now I’m waiting for the withdrawal to complete before I start with the next one.

The reason I’m mostly doing matched betting is that I’m waiting for BetTrader Evolution to be released. I’ve done some tennis trading the last few days, it went well for a while with a technique I thought of myself. I was dkk 4000 in profit on a match, but because I know absolutely nothing about tennis the matched ended before I could hedge. Imagine how it feels, not to lose dkk 4000 but to know you could have had dkk 4000 if you had just pressed the hedge button.

All these things have made me even more determined to succeed at prerace horseracing because I think every race is more or less the same, the same factors make the market move etc.

I may look at other markets until BTE is released, but I’ll most likely do some more matched betting.

A day in profit

August 29, 2009

I traded 29 races today. Overall it went well but I still have to work on reducing my losses. I’m not doing anything specific to reduce my losses I think a combination of knowing the markets a little better, scrathing or taking a 1-2 tick loss will help.

I still see myself sitting there waiting for the price to come back when it goes the wrong way, and most of the times it doesn’t. So I’ll have to be better at taking a 1-2 tick loss instead of hedging just before the race starts for a 5 tick loss.

I’m only trading the favs. Some people think the favs are more difficult to trade on but I don’t find much of a difference, so I’ll just stick to trading them.

One thing that really helps you understand why you have to cut your losses is the P&L on betfair. All my losses add up to dkk 22.4, so if I just broke even on the races I had a loss I would be up dkk 26.98.

I think I’ll be ready for trading with bigger stakes when I’m done snatching the signup bonuses from all the decent bookies.

pl 29 aug